Methodology

How NaijaGauge open online polls are designed, verified and interpreted.

This page describes the intended methodology for the pilot platform. Production claims should be updated to match the final deployed verification and fraud-control implementation.

Open online participation

NaijaGauge pilot polls are voluntary and self-selected. Anyone meeting the poll's stated eligibility rules may participate after completing the required verification step.

Verification and duplicate controls

The pilot uses verified email credentials. A cryptographic identifier associated with the verified account can be used to enforce one vote per verified participant per poll. Additional fraud signals may include device, rate and network patterns.

Privacy separation

Vote records should not expose the participant's raw email address. Verification data and voting data should be technically separated wherever practicable, with only the minimum data required for fraud prevention and aggregation retained.

Nigeria and diaspora reporting

Participants identify whether they currently live in Nigeria or outside Nigeria. This enables results to be displayed as All Respondents, Nigeria Residents and Diaspora Respondents. These are descriptive groupings of respondents, not electoral rolls.

How results should be interpreted

A large sample does not remove self-selection bias. Open online poll results measure the preferences of the people who chose to participate. They should not be described as representative of all Nigerian voters unless a separate scientifically designed sampling and weighting methodology is used.

Political neutrality

Candidate and party options should be displayed using consistent card sizes, typography and treatment. Candidate order can be randomised in production to reduce position bias. NaijaGauge should not accept payment to alter candidate prominence, result weighting or poll treatment.

Transparency

Each poll should publish its opening and closing times, eligibility definition, verification method, response count, geographic scope and whether results are weighted or unweighted.

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